Same assets. Less pain. 7 years of regime-conditional backtest.
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Daily structural snapshot. Free access.
Track Record
i
Full historical backtest showing model performance by regime since 2019.
Since 2019
Price × Regime Overlay · Since 2019
expansion
transition
contraction
$107k$81k$55k$29k$4k
2019202020212022202320242025
Total Return
B&H +2614.3%RC +2455.2%
Max Drawdown
B&H -73.4%RC -43.6%
Sharpe
B&H 4.83RC 4.94
Time in Market
B&H 100%RC 79%
Forward Returns by Regime
expansion
Avg 30D+173.5%
Avg 90D+553.7%
Hit Rate100%
Max DD · N
-73.4%3
transition
Avg 30D+409.5%
Avg 90D+890.5%
Hit Rate100%
Max DD · N
-73.4%4
contraction
Avg 30D+565.0%
Avg 90D+1378.9%
Hit Rate100%
Max DD · N
-73.4%2
RegimeAvg 30DAvg 90DHit RateMax DD · N
expansion+173.5%+553.7%100%
-73.4%3
transition+409.5%+890.5%100%
-73.4%4
contraction+565.0%+1378.9%100%
-73.4%2
Strategy Comparison · Since 2019
Buy & Hold
Regime-Conditional
29x19x9x1x
2019202020212022202320242025
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The shift
Most investors react to price. Phase Model tracks structure.
The difference between reacting and understanding.
Noise-driven behavior
✕Reacting emotionally to price
✕Confusing volatility with deterioration
✕Overfocusing on headlines
✕Missing structural context
Structural interpretation
✓Understanding regime context
✓Identifying broad participation
✓Separating weakness from breakdown
✓Making decisions with structural clarity
Why it matters
Why regimes matter
A regime is the underlying condition of the market — not the price, not the news, but the structure beneath both. Same price move. Different meaning depending on where the regime stands.
Expansion
Conditions favor growth. Risk is rewarded.
Transition
The trend is shifting. Uncertainty rises.
Contraction
Risk is elevated. Preservation matters more than gain.
Same price move. Different meaning.
A 10% drop in expansion is a buying opportunity. The same drop in contraction can signal much more.
Volatility is not always risk.
High volatility during expansion is often noise. The same volatility in contraction signals genuine structural stress.
Pullbacks behave differently under different regimes.
Structure tells you how to interpret price action — not just react to it.
Most investors react to what already happened. A regime tells you what's actually happening — before the price confirms it.
Real usage
How investors use Phase Model
01Morning context
Understand the market regime before reacting to price.
02Risk management
Increase or reduce aggression based on structure.
03Market interpretation
Know whether weakness is temporary or structural.
04Noise filtering
Separate headlines from actual deterioration.
What is Phase Model
See the market's structural condition in seconds.
Phase Model tracks breadth, momentum, liquidity, volatility and participation to identify the current regime across crypto and traditional assets.
BreadthMomentumParticipationVolatilityLiquidity
Technical knowledge isn't a prerequisite. Phase Model absorbs the structural complexity and delivers the conclusion. You keep your time for what actually matters: your next move.
Crypto Twitter explodes. Fear index spikes. Every headline screams exit.
→
You open Phase Model
Expansion remained intact
despite volatility.
Structural shift
82% confidence. The structure hasn't moved. This is noise, not a shift.
→
The outcome
Volatility increased
without structural deterioration.
Temporary volatility
The dip reverses. You held because the regime said so — not emotion.
That's what structural intelligence does — it separates market noise from regime shifts. The ones that actually matter.
How it works
A complete structural snapshot.
Every pillar measures a different dimension of market health. From macro conditions to on-chain participation, Phase Model integrates eight independent signals into one daily regime reading.