The Model
Phase classifies market structure into regimes using a composite structural framework.
Structural Components
Trend
Multi-timeframe directional bias derived from structural price positioning. Focuses on persistence, not volatility.
Halving Cycles
Structural supply-driven inflection modeling anchored to Bitcoin's issuance schedule and historical regime transitions.
Valuation
Macro-relative positioning using long-horizon valuation bands. Identifies structural overextension and compression zones.
Correlation
Cross-asset structural alignment analysis. Measures whether the asset is moving independently or within broader macro flow.
Regime Classification
Each structural component is normalized and aggregated into a composite regime score. The model evaluates structural alignment.
Primary Output Regimes:
- expansion
- transition
- neutral
- contraction
A confidence metric represents internal signal agreement. Higher confidence implies structural coherence across components.
Update Logic
Phase updates when structural thresholds are crossed — not on every price fluctuation.
This reduces noise and avoids regime oscillation caused by short-term volatility.
Structural orientation precedes tactical execution.